Concerns are growing within the space community that the United States may be surpassed by China in the race to return humans to the Moon. Delays and technological hurdles associated with SpaceX's Starship, a critical component of NASA's Artemis 3 mission, are casting doubt on the planned mid-2027 landing date.
While NASA partners with SpaceX on a complex and ambitious landing strategy, China is making consistent progress with its own lunar program. Experts, including former NASA officials, now suggest that China could achieve a crewed lunar landing before the United States, a feat not seen since the Apollo program ended in the 1970s.
Key Takeaways
- NASA's Artemis 3 mission, scheduled for mid-2027, is facing potential delays due to its reliance on SpaceX's Starship rocket.
- China is progressing with its lunar program, aiming to land astronauts on the Moon before 2030, potentially ahead of the U.S.
- The Starship lander requires unproven technologies, including in-orbit refueling, which has never been accomplished before.
- Former NASA officials have expressed concerns about the mission's timeline and are calling for a backup plan.
The Starship Hurdle
The success of NASA's return to the Moon hinges on a multibillion-dollar contract with SpaceX. The company's super-heavy launch vehicle, Starship, has been selected to serve as the Human Landing System (HLS) that will transport astronauts from lunar orbit down to the surface.
However, Starship's development has been marked by a series of challenges. The massive rocket has yet to complete a full launch and landing sequence without significant issues. Early test flights ended in dramatic explosions, and while progress has been made, the vehicle's readiness remains a major question.
The most recent test flight in March 2024 was considered a partial success. The vehicle completed a suborbital flight and its upper stage largely survived reentry. However, it sustained considerable damage during its descent, highlighting the engineering challenges that still need to be overcome.
"There are thousands of engineering challenges that remain for both the ship and the booster," SpaceX CEO Elon Musk admitted during a company webcast.
Unproven Technology at the Core
A primary concern for mission planners is Starship's reliance on technology that has never been used before. The most significant of these is in-orbit refueling. To have enough propellant for the journey to lunar orbit and the subsequent landing, the Starship lander must be refueled by multiple other Starship tankers while in Earth's orbit.
This complex orbital maneuver has never been attempted on this scale. It introduces numerous points of potential failure into an already complicated mission architecture. Timelines for demonstrating this capability have already slipped. In 2023, both NASA and SpaceX aimed for an initial refueling test in early 2025, a date that has now been pushed to at least next year.
The Artemis 3 Mission Plan
The mission involves several distinct stages. First, a crew of four astronauts will launch aboard NASA's Orion capsule, propelled by the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket. Once in lunar orbit, the Orion capsule will rendezvous and dock with a pre-positioned SpaceX Starship lander. Two astronauts will then transfer to Starship for the final descent to the Moon's surface, while the other two remain in orbit. After the surface mission, the Starship will ascend and dock with Orion again for the crew's return journey to Earth.
Former NASA officials have voiced skepticism about this approach. "This is not anything against SpaceX — they have done incredible things," Douglas Loverro, former head of human spaceflight at NASA, told The New York Times. "But the further you move from known technology, the longer it takes to go ahead and get something done."
China's Steady Advance
While the U.S. program navigates these technological uncertainties, China's space program is advancing at a rapid pace. Following a series of successful robotic missions to the Moon, including sample returns and a rover on the far side, China has set a clear goal: land its own astronauts, known as taikonauts, on the lunar surface before 2030.
China's plan relies on its "Lanyue" lunar lander and a more conventional mission architecture that does not require unproven techniques like orbital refueling. This straightforward approach, combined with the country's consistent investment and progress, has led many experts to believe its timeline is more realistic than NASA's.
A New Space Race
- United States (Artemis 3): Tentatively scheduled for mid-2027, but heavily dependent on Starship's development.
- China (Lanyue Lander): Aiming for a crewed landing before 2030, using a more traditional mission profile.
This progress has not gone unnoticed. The potential for China to reach the Moon first has prompted calls for NASA to develop a contingency plan. Loverro and other former officials have advocated for a "Plan B," such as developing a simpler lunar lander that does not depend on orbital refueling.
Calls for a Backup Plan
The complexity of the Artemis mission extends beyond just Starship. The Orion capsule and the SLS rocket, built by Boeing, have also experienced their own significant delays and budget overruns. However, Starship remains the biggest variable due to its novel design and unproven systems.
Before carrying astronauts, SpaceX is required to perform a full, uncrewed demonstration mission, including landing a Starship on the Moon and returning it to lunar orbit. This test alone is a major undertaking that will consume significant time and resources, further pressuring the 2027 schedule.
The lack of a viable alternative to the Starship lander is a key point of concern. Should SpaceX fail to meet its deadlines, NASA currently has no other way to get its astronauts to the lunar surface. This has led to a sense of urgency among observers who fear the U.S. is ceding its leadership in space exploration.
Daniel Dumbacher, a former deputy associate administrator at NASA, expressed doubt that even a new backup plan could be developed in time. "I doubt that’s going to be accomplished by 2030," he told The New York Times, adding, "and that makes it likely that China will beat us to the Moon."