A new security agreement between Turkey and Somalia is creating ripples across the Middle East and East Africa, with analysts warning of a significant shift in the regional balance of power. The deal includes the construction of a Turkish space base on Somali soil, a development that experts say could enhance Turkey's ballistic missile capabilities and pose a new strategic challenge to nations like Israel.
During the recent Africa-Israel Economic Forum, security analysts highlighted Turkey's expanding military and political footprint, urging Israel to re-engage with the African continent to counter the growing influence of its strategic rivals.
Key Takeaways
- Turkey has signed a significant security cooperation agreement with Somalia, deepening its military presence in the Horn of Africa.
- The agreement includes plans for a Turkish space base north of Mogadishu, which could be used to improve the range of its ballistic missiles.
- Dr. Rashid Abdi, a regional security expert, stated that Turkey is also conducting missile launch experiments in Eritrea.
- This expansion establishes Turkey as a naval power in the Red Sea and the western Indian Ocean, extending its influence far beyond the Mediterranean.
- Experts at the Africa-Israel Economic Forum urged Israel to increase its strategic engagement in Africa to counter these developments.
A Strategic Foothold in the Horn of Africa
Turkey's influence in Africa is no longer a matter of soft power alone. A groundbreaking security agreement with Somalia has solidified its military presence, with thousands of Turkish soldiers now stationed in the country. This partnership is set to expand further with the development of new military infrastructure.
Dr. Rashid Abdi, director of research at the Sahan Global think tank, provided details on this development. Speaking as a guest of the Israel-Africa Institute, he explained the gravity of the situation.
"The main message for the State of Israel is that Israel cannot afford to stay out of Africa, out of the Red Sea arena, out of the western Indian Ocean. Many of Israel's strategic rivals are advancing very strongly on the continent right now," Dr. Abdi stated.
Central to these concerns is a specific piece of land north of Mogadishu. The Somali president has announced that this area has been allocated to Turkey for the development of a port and, more critically, a space base. According to Dr. Abdi, this facility will ultimately allow Turkey to improve the range of its ballistic missiles.
Why the Horn of Africa Matters
The Horn of Africa, which includes Somalia and Eritrea, is one of the world's most critical strategic locations. It sits adjacent to the Bab el-Mandeb strait, a narrow chokepoint through which a significant portion of global maritime trade passes to and from the Suez Canal. Establishing a military presence here allows a nation to project power over vital shipping lanes in the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean.
From Mediterranean to 'Blue Water' Power
The establishment of a base in Somalia marks a significant evolution in Turkey's military posture. Historically viewed as a Mediterranean power, its armed forces are now demonstrating what experts call "blue water capabilities." This term refers to a navy capable of operating globally, far from its home ports.
Turkish naval vessels are now a common sight patrolling through the Suez Canal, down the Red Sea, and along the Somali coastline. This operational reach transforms Turkey's strategic calculus.
"For the first time, Turkey is not just a Mediterranean power, but also a power in the Red Sea and in the western Indian Ocean," Dr. Abdi noted. This expanded naval presence gives Turkey influence over key maritime trade routes and allows it to project military power deep into Africa and the Arabian Peninsula.
Missile Technology Concerns
The concerns are not limited to Somalia. Dr. Abdi also revealed that Turkey is conducting launch experiments in Eritrea with ballistic missiles. These missiles, he warned, are capable of reaching Israel and other destinations in the region. The combination of a space base for range enhancement in Somalia and launch tests in Eritrea points to a coordinated strategy to develop long-range strike capabilities.
Turkey's Military Presence in Somalia
- Camp TURKSOM: Located in Mogadishu, it is Turkey's largest overseas military base and serves as a major training facility for the Somali National Army.
- Security Agreement: A 10-year defense and economic cooperation deal signed in early 2024 tasks Turkey with defending Somalia's coastline.
- Troop Numbers: Thousands of Turkish soldiers are reported to be stationed in the country.
The development of such technology, coupled with a forward operating base in East Africa, creates a new and unpredictable threat matrix for regional stability. "If I were Israel, I would definitely be worried," Abdi concluded.
A Call for Renewed Engagement
The strategic shifts in Africa were a central theme at the Africa-Israel Economic Forum. Speakers emphasized that the continent is a new arena for geopolitical competition, and that inaction could have severe consequences.
Eugene Kandel, chairman of the Board of the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange, framed the issue in broader terms. He cautioned that extremist ideologies are also active on the continent, attempting to drive a wedge between African nations and the West.
"Radical Islam operates in Africa too and tries to return Africa to conflict against the West. Israel must not let this happen," Kandel urged forum attendees.
The consensus among speakers was that Israel's technological and economic expertise provides a powerful tool for building alliances. Shiri Fein-Grossman, CEO of the Israel-Africa Relations Institute, argued that strategic investment could yield significant diplomatic returns.
"Israel can make a tremendous difference in Africa at a relatively low investment," she said, suggesting that partnerships in agriculture, water technology, and security could form the basis of stronger relationships.
The underlying message was clear: as powers like Turkey expand their military and political reach across Africa, nations that fail to engage with the continent risk being strategically sidelined. The developments in Somalia serve as a stark reminder that the security landscape of the Red Sea and the wider Indian Ocean is undergoing a rapid and consequential transformation.