The United States is increasing its focus on space superiority to protect strategic interests, especially concerning Taiwan. Military experts suggest that future conflicts could begin in space, with attacks on satellites potentially disabling critical defense capabilities. This shift highlights the growing importance of orbital defense in global security.
Key Takeaways
- Future conflicts may start in space, targeting satellites.
- US military relies heavily on space assets for intelligence and communication.
- China is rapidly advancing its own space capabilities.
- A national strategy, beyond military doctrine, is needed for US space leadership.
- International alliances and private sector collaboration are crucial for US space defense.
Space as a New Battlefield
If a conflict were to arise over Taiwan, initial actions might occur in Earth's orbit. Chinese ground-based lasers could target US satellites, disrupting their ability to provide imagery of the region. Additionally, Chinese satellites designed for close-range maneuvers could interfere with or destroy US satellites. These US systems are vital for precise weapons targeting and secure communications among military units, including ships, aircraft, and ground forces.
These communication systems provide essential navigation and real-time intelligence. Without them, US forces and their allies would face significant challenges in coordinating operations or responding effectively. Military experts have warned that losing access to these systems would severely hamper operations for the United States, Taiwan, and their partners. Such a loss could give the People's Liberation Army (PLA) a critical advantage in the Taiwan Strait, potentially influencing the outcome of a conflict from its very beginning.
Fact: Satellite Reliance
The US military depends on satellites for a wide range of missions. These include detailed Earth imaging (geospatial intelligence), guiding long-range missiles, and maintaining secure, reliable communications globally. Losing these space-based capabilities would severely hinder the ability to track enemy movements, direct weapons, and coordinate forces across vast distances, increasing the risk of defeat.
The US Space Force Doctrine
In April 2025, the US Space Force released its warfighting doctrine. This 22-page document outlines an ambitious goal: maintaining "space superiority." This means ensuring full use of outer space for all branches of the US armed forces across all domains, while denying similar access to adversaries. The doctrine details how the US military plans to achieve this advantage, including protecting its own satellites and disrupting or defending against hostile space systems. It also focuses on keeping satellite data pathways open.
The Space Force's doctrine provides a framework for how the US military plans to operate and succeed in space. However, this framework is purely military. To stay ahead of China, the United States needs a broader, long-term national strategy. This strategy must guide investments, technology development, and international partnerships essential for long-term defense in space.
"The Space Force's doctrine outlines how to achieve and defend space superiority in war. It is now up to the rest of the U.S. government to provide the blueprint for advancing space technology and sustaining investments needed to keep the United States and its allies ahead in the long run."
China's Rapid Space Advancements
China is currently halfway through its five-year national strategy for outer space. It has already achieved many of its technological milestones. China has expanded its family of launch vehicles and upgraded its satellite services. It has also built new commercial launch pads to support faster and more frequent missions into Earth orbits and beyond.
China's space achievements, such as its Tiangong space station, experimental modules, and the return of lunar samples from the far side of the Moon, might seem unrelated to immediate military concerns. However, these accomplishments demonstrate China's commitment to mastering advanced space operations. These operations could significantly alter the military balance of power on Earth. They show China's intention to outperform and even surpass the United States in space superiority, gaining a technological advantage in areas like space-based sensors, guidance, and navigation for warships.
Context: Global Space Spending
The United States leads global competitors in government-funded defense-related space investments, spending $73 billion in 2024. This funding supports technologies like new satellites for communication, navigation, and missile warning, as well as new launch systems. China is closing this gap, ranking as the second-largest defense investor with $19.8 billion in government spending.
Strengthening US Space Leadership
To maintain its lead, the United States must implement a comprehensive, long-term national strategy. This strategy should guide technical priorities, investments, and global partnerships. Several key areas require attention:
Expand the Artemis Accords
The Artemis Accords are agreements signed by 56 countries, committing to peaceful and cooperative behavior in space. An expansion, creating an "Artemis Alliance," would add a security dimension. This defense alliance would focus on deterring aggression and upholding norms in orbit. It would complement the Space Force's International Partnership Strategy, which recognizes that America cannot maintain space superiority alone. China is also expanding its space partnerships, signing bilateral agreements with emerging space powers and collaborating with Russia on a joint lunar research base. An Artemis Alliance would unify its members, presenting a strong front for stability in space.
Empower the National Space Council
The United States needs to commit clearly and permanently to empowering the National Space Council to lead its space policy. Reports earlier this year suggested the White House considered abolishing the Council, though plans for its revival were later signaled. The Council requires institutional strengthening, which may be challenging due to shifting priorities between administrations. It also faces a perception problem, often seen as a low priority within the executive branch. Strengthening the Council would involve more frequent vice-presidential meetings and the reintroduction of Space Policy Directives. These directives are formal executive guidelines that set clear goals, technical standards, and agency responsibilities across civil, commercial, and defense space sectors. The administration should also elevate the Council's standing within the White House, giving it a stronger role in coordinating policy across the entire US government. Without such a structure, US space policy risks becoming fragmented and reactive.
Under the first Trump administration, Vice President Mike Pence chaired eight public National Space Council meetings, resulting in seven Space Policy Directives covering lunar exploration, space traffic management, cybersecurity, and the establishment of the Space Force. The Biden administration, under Vice President Harris, held three public Council meetings, a reduction in frequency. The Council also shifted from Space Policy Directives to a Space Priorities Framework in 2021 and National Security Memoranda. While these tools have legal weight, they cover broad topics and lack the specific technical standards and agency responsibilities that Space Policy Directives once provided. This shift has diminished the Council's role as a central coordinator of US space policy.
Leverage the Private Sector
A thriving commercial space ecosystem has emerged in areas like remote sensing, launch services, and advanced technologies. This growth is largely due to investments by NASA, the National Science Foundation, and other agencies in early-stage commercial research and development. China has made significant progress in technologies such as laser communications, reusable launch systems, and satellite constellations. To maintain its leadership, the United States must actively support its commercial space sector and ensure robust public-private collaboration. The decision to disband the Advisory Committee on Excellence in Space (ACES) in early 2025, aimed at reducing government spending, removed a key platform for industry input on regulation and innovation. Without structured interactions with the private sector, the US government risks slowing progress in its space capabilities and losing influence over future space norms.
Congress has consistently supported commercial space investment. The recent reconciliation bill included $10 billion in supplemental funding for NASA, covering Artemis missions and a commercial Mars telecommunications orbiter. Bipartisan appropriations bills in both chambers have also maintained steady funding for NASA, including continued partnerships with industry. Reestablishing forums like ACES would help align federal policy with industry advancements and Congressional intent, securing US leadership in space for years to come.
Do Not Cede the Moon to China
Long-term space superiority requires the United States to return to the lunar surface. An American presence on the Moon is a stepping stone to Mars. Lunar resources could potentially sustain human presence and support deep-space missions. For example, the lunar poles may contain ice deposits convertible into water, oxygen, and even fuel. Furthermore, a US presence could prevent strategic surprises by monitoring Chinese activities on the lunar poles and the far side of the Moon. Equally important, the first nation to establish a lasting presence on the Moon will help set the rules for its use. If China establishes a permanent lunar presence first, it could shape norms that favor its interests and limit US and allied access in the future.
The cost of lunar exploration may seem high. However, history shows that investments in frontier space programs like Apollo and the International Space Station (ISS) yield transformative technologies. These breakthroughs impact areas such as healthcare, defense, and communications. For instance, NASA developed water recycling and filtration systems for the Space Station to convert astronaut wastewater into safe drinking water. These technologies are now used in portable filters and clean water systems for disaster relief and remote communities. A successful lunar effort could deliver similar innovations while allowing the United States to monitor and counter adversarial activities. While the United States may not lead in every domain, the Moon is a decisive arena where an early presence is essential. Ceding this ground would have consequences beyond prestige, affecting resources, access, and the norms that will govern space for decades. If China becomes the dominant power in space, its effects could undoubtedly impact Earth, from the Taiwan Strait to America’s ability to defend itself and its allies. The decisions the United States makes now will determine its ability to shape space access and governance or relinquish that role to its competitors.
