United States Space Force officials have expressed growing concern over China's accelerated development of reusable rocket technology. They warn that Beijing's progress could eventually challenge the current U.S. advantage in space, potentially altering the strategic balance in orbit.
Speaking at the Air & Space Forces Association’s annual conference, senior intelligence officers highlighted that while the U.S. currently leads in reusable launch capabilities, China is rapidly closing the gap. This development could enable China to deploy large-scale satellite networks for both military and commercial use at a much faster rate.
Key Takeaways
- U.S. Space Force intelligence officials are concerned by the rapid pace of China's reusable rocket development.
- Mastering this technology could allow China to quickly deploy megaconstellations, similar to U.S. systems like Starlink.
- China is also advancing in other areas, including in-orbit refueling and placing remote sensing satellites in unusual Medium Earth Orbits (MEO).
- A recent report from the Commercial Space Federation corroborates these concerns, labeling China's space enterprise a significant challenge to U.S. leadership.
A Closing Gap in Space Technology
The United States has established a significant lead in reusable rocket technology, primarily through the efforts of companies like SpaceX. This capability has drastically reduced launch costs and increased the frequency of missions, allowing for the rapid deployment and replenishment of critical satellite constellations.
However, U.S. military leaders are now cautioning that this advantage may not be permanent. At a conference on September 22, a top Space Force intelligence official described China's swift progress as a major point of concern.
"China has moved their development to the left … And it is concerning how fast they’ve done it," stated Brig. Gen. Brian Sidari, the deputy chief of space operations for intelligence at the U.S. Space Force.
Sidari clarified that the primary worry is not just the development of the technology itself, but its application. He noted the strategic threat will materialize when the Chinese "figure out how to do reusable lift that allows them to put more capability on orbit at a quicker pace and cadence."
Why Reusable Rockets Matter
Reusable launch vehicles can be flown multiple times, which significantly lowers the cost of sending payloads into space. This innovation has been pivotal for building out large satellite networks, known as megaconstellations, which require dozens or even hundreds of launches. The U.S. has leveraged this for systems like Starlink, which provides global broadband internet.
China's Broader Ambitions in Orbit
While reusable launch remains a key focus, officials pointed to other areas where China is demonstrating sophisticated space capabilities. These advancements show a multi-faceted strategy to build a resilient and powerful presence in orbit, even before fully mastering reusability.
In-Orbit Servicing and Refueling
Chief Master Sgt. Ron Lerch, a senior intelligence specialist and advisor to Gen. Sidari, highlighted a recent Chinese mission in the geostationary belt. The operation involved the Shijian-21 and Shijian-25 spacecraft conducting an in-orbit refueling, a complex maneuver that can extend the life and capabilities of satellites.
Lerch described this capability as "game changing" for a nation that has yet to operationalize reusable rockets. It provides an alternative method for sustaining its assets in space, a critical component for long-term strategic operations.
Unusual Satellite Placements
The Space Force is also closely monitoring China's satellite deployment strategies. Lerch pointed to the September 9 launch of Yaogan 45, a satellite that Beijing claims is for scientific research and disaster monitoring.
The Yaogan 45 satellite was placed in Medium Earth Orbit (MEO), approximately 2,000 kilometers above Earth. This is an uncommon altitude for remote sensing satellites, which are typically placed in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) for higher-resolution imaging.
According to Lerch, this move is significant. The U.S. has historically been the primary operator in MEO. China recently began placing its Skynet broadband satellites in this orbit and now appears to be adding a layer of remote sensing capabilities.
"That starts to paint a picture that they value remote sensing to the point where they want resiliency and layers of it," Lerch explained. Creating layered satellite networks across different orbits makes them harder to disrupt or disable.
Monitoring Suspicious Satellite Behavior
Another area of focus for U.S. observers is China’s TJS satellite series. Officially designated as communication and broadcasting satellites, there is strong suspicion they serve military functions, including electronic intelligence and missile warning.
Lerch noted a sharp increase in their deployment.
"This year alone, the Chinese have put about five of them on orbit, which is highly unusual compared to previous years," he said.
He also pointed out their unusual behavior in geostationary orbit (GEO). "These spacecraft that are sitting at GEO are not supposed to be sliding all around the GEO belt, but the history of these experimental spacecraft has shown that that’s exactly what they do," Lerch added. This mobility is uncharacteristic for standard communication satellites and suggests they may be maneuvering to gather intelligence on other nations' orbital assets.
Industry Report Echoes Military Concerns
The warnings from Space Force leaders align with findings from the civilian sector. A recent report from the Commercial Space Federation, titled “Redshift: The Acceleration of China’s Commercial and Civil Space Enterprise & The Challenge to America,” issued a similar alert.
The report concludes that China’s expanding space sector “poses a significant and immediate challenge to U.S. leadership in the domain.” It specifically identifies reusable rocket technology as a top priority for Chinese private companies, which are developing powerful liquid-propellant rockets designed to launch their own broadband megaconstellations.
These commercial efforts, supported by the state, could eventually produce a network to rival existing U.S. systems, further intensifying the strategic competition in space.