The United States Space Force is developing a comprehensive planning document designed to anticipate and prepare for threats over the next five to 15 years. This new strategic framework, titled the "Future Operating Environment," will use in-depth analysis and intelligence to guide the service's long-term investments, acquisitions, and operational posture.
Gen. B. Chance Saltzman, the chief of space operations, announced the initiative during a keynote speech at the Air, Space, Cyber Conference. He explained that the document will serve as an authoritative guide for the entire service, ensuring that all efforts are aligned to counter future adversarial capabilities in space.
Key Takeaways
- The U.S. Space Force is creating a new strategic document called the "Future Operating Environment."
- It aims to plan for threats and technological changes over a 5-to-15-year horizon, with projections extending to 2040.
- The document will define requirements for systems, personnel, and support structures.
- It is intended to provide a clear demand signal to the defense industry regarding future needs.
- The creation process is highly collaborative, involving experts from government, industry, and academia.
A New Framework for Long-Range Planning
The Space Force has initiated the creation of what it calls the "Future Operating Environment," a foundational document intended to shape its direction for more than a decade. According to Gen. Saltzman, this effort is central to "building the architect of the future" and ensuring the service remains ahead of potential adversaries.
The primary goal is to establish a single, authoritative source for long-term planning. This document will consolidate analysis, intelligence, and strategic goals into a cohesive vision. "It ensures our operations and our programs are synchronized and that we are all working towards the same goal to build the force we need now and into the future," Saltzman stated.
This strategic framework is not just an internal guide. It is also designed to communicate the Space Force's priorities and requirements to external partners, particularly within the defense industry. By outlining future needs with greater clarity, the service hopes to foster innovation and targeted development from its commercial partners.
Defining Future Mission Requirements
The core of the "Future Operating Environment" will be a detailed assessment of several key variables. Gen. Saltzman outlined a multi-faceted approach that goes beyond simply reacting to current events. The document will address fundamental questions about the service's role and responsibilities.
The Evolving Domain of Space
Space is no longer considered a benign environment. It is now recognized as a warfighting domain, with nations like China and Russia actively developing and deploying counter-space capabilities. These include anti-satellite weapons, electronic jammers, and sophisticated surveillance systems. This evolving threat landscape necessitates proactive, long-term strategic planning to ensure the U.S. and its allies can maintain access to and freedom of operation in space.
A significant element involves analyzing the missions assigned to the Space Force. Planners will evaluate both current responsibilities and potential future tasks. "What mission are we going to give up? … What is the balance of missions that are being asked of the Space Force?" Saltzman posed, highlighting the need for strategic prioritization. For instance, the service is planning to take on missions like air moving target indicators, a capability it does not currently possess.
Forecasting Threats and Technology
Another critical component is threat analysis. The team developing the document will look closely at what adversaries can do today and project their capabilities into the future, with a specific focus on the strategic environment in 2040.
"We look closely at what our adversaries can do today and what we expect them to be able to do in the future," Gen. B. Chance Saltzman said.
Technological trends are also a major focus. The planners will assess which emerging technologies the Space Force can leverage and which might be used against U.S. assets. "What are the trends in technology that we can take advantage of, or that will be used against us if we're not paying attention?" Saltzman added, emphasizing the dual nature of technological advancement in a competitive environment.
A Collaborative and Dynamic Process
While the final document will be authoritative, its creation is designed to be a highly collaborative process. Gen. Saltzman stressed that input will be gathered from a wide range of stakeholders to ensure a comprehensive and well-rounded strategy. The goal is to leave "no stone unturned."
A Wide Range of Expertise
The development of the "Future Operating Environment" will involve a diverse group of professionals, including:
- Engineers and scientists from government labs
- Acquisition specialists and program managers
- Intelligence analysts and professionals
- Military operators and warfighters
- Partners from the defense and technology industry
- Experts from academic institutions
This inclusive approach is intended to capture diverse perspectives on technological feasibility, operational realities, and emerging threats. Once initial concepts are developed, they will not be accepted at face value. Instead, they will be rigorously tested and refined through a series of exercises, wargames, and simulations to validate their effectiveness.
Furthermore, the strategy is not meant to be static. Recognizing the rapid pace of change in space technology and geopolitics, the plan is to update the "Future Operating Environment" document at least every five years. "Because things are going to change," Saltzman noted, confirming that the framework will be a living document that evolves with the strategic landscape.
Guiding Industry and Investment
A key outcome of this strategic effort is to provide clear and consistent guidance to the defense industry. Gen. Saltzman described the document as a crucial "demand signal" that will inform companies about what the Space Force will need for the next 15 years.
This clarity is expected to help industry align its research and development investments with the service's long-term priorities. By detailing the "what, when, and how many" for future space systems, support structures, and personnel, the document will provide the predictability that companies need to plan effectively.
Gen. Saltzman hopes to eventually release an unclassified version of the document to accompany a more detailed secret version. This would allow for broader dissemination, ensuring that decision-makers at all appropriate levels, both in government and industry, have access to the strategic vision. "This is what the Space Force is thinking," he explained, underscoring its role as a central communication tool for the entire space enterprise.
