Post-Soviet States Use Population as a Political Tool

Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, fifteen new republics emerged, each facing complex questions of national identity and population management. In this unstable environment, demographic policies—such as citizenship laws and language requirements—have become strategic instruments used to consolidate power, define national borders, and project influence.

These policies are not merely administrative; they are central to state-building and geopolitical competition. Countries like Russia use them to extend influence beyond their borders, while others like Kazakhstan and the Baltic states focus inward, shaping their populations to strengthen national sovereignty. This has transformed demographics from a simple statistic into an active area of political intervention.

Russia's Use of Citizenship as Foreign Policy

For the Russian Federation, the large populations of ethnic Russians left in newly independent states after 1991 represented a strategic asset. Moscow developed a policy of extending citizenship to these groups to maintain influence in its former territories. This strategy, often called "passportization," serves as a powerful tool in Russia's foreign policy.

The practice became prominent in the early 2000s in the Georgian regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. After recognizing their independence, Russia began distributing passports to residents without Georgia's consent. This created a large population of Russian citizens, which Moscow later used to justify military intervention under the pretext of protecting its compatriots.

Expansion into Ukraine

This strategy was later expanded and refined in Ukraine. Prior to the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the conflict in the Donbas region, Russia engaged in mass naturalization of residents. By creating a demographic link to these territories, the Kremlin was able to frame its military actions as a defense of its citizens abroad rather than an act of aggression.

Passportization blurs the lines between domestic and foreign policy. It allows Russia to project power and assert authority without formal territorial control, effectively creating a post-territorial extension of the state. This demographic tactic complements more traditional tools of geopolitical control, such as economic pressure and military alliances.

Internal State-Building Through Demographics

While Russia used population policies to project power outward, other post-Soviet states have focused inward. For these new nations, managing their demographic composition became a critical part of consolidating sovereignty and building a cohesive national identity. They faced the challenge of governing diverse populations with complex loyalties inherited from the Soviet period.

Kazakhstan's Repatriation Strategy

Kazakhstan provides a clear example of demographic statecraft. At the time of its independence, ethnic Kazakhs were only a slight majority, and Russian speakers dominated many northern regions. In response, the government launched the "Oralman Repatriation Program" to encourage ethnic Kazakhs living abroad to return.

This program, combined with the promotion of the Kazakh language in public life, significantly altered the country's ethnic balance.

The Kazakh government's approach was strategic and gradual. It aimed to strengthen the titular nation's demographic position as a foundation for a stable and sovereign state, reducing the potential for external influence from Russia.

The Baltic States and 'Non-Citizens'

The Baltic republics of Latvia and Estonia adopted a different, more legalistic approach. Both countries inherited large Russian-speaking minorities as a result of Soviet-era migration policies. In 1989, ethnic Russians made up 34% of Latvia's population and 30% of Estonia's.

Upon regaining independence, neither state granted automatic citizenship to all Soviet-era residents. Instead, they passed restrictive laws that primarily granted citizenship to individuals who could prove their lineage from pre-1940 citizens. This excluded hundreds of thousands of Russian speakers.

Those who did not qualify for automatic citizenship were classified as "non-citizens." This legal status grants permanent residency but withholds certain political rights, such as voting in national elections. To become naturalized citizens, applicants are required to pass language proficiency tests in Latvian or Estonian.

"The establishment of a 'non-citizen' status was a calculated move to reaffirm the titular nation's supremacy and lower the perceived danger of Russian political meddling. This legal framework... represented an existential necessity: to restore national sovereignty in the wake of a former hegemon."

While controversial, officials in both countries have defended these policies as essential for protecting their national culture and ensuring political stability after decades of Soviet rule.

The Politics of Belonging and Social Hierarchies

Across the post-Soviet region, the concept of belonging is complex and often stratified. Formal citizenship does not always guarantee equal rights or social recognition. States have created hierarchies of belonging based on ethnicity, language, and perceived loyalty.

This stratification is evident in the existence of multiple legal statuses, including citizen, non-citizen, permanent resident, and repatriate. In Kazakhstan, the Oralman program gave preferential treatment to returning ethnic Kazakhs, providing them with housing and employment assistance. This signals that some forms of belonging are considered more integral to the state than others.

Migrant Labor and Transactional Inclusion

The hierarchy also extends to migrant laborers. The Russian economy, for example, relies heavily on millions of workers from Central Asian countries like Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. These migrants are economically included but politically and socially excluded.

• They often receive temporary work permits with limited rights.
• Their legal status is precarious and subject to sudden revocation.
• They rarely have a pathway to long-term integration or citizenship.

In this system, belonging becomes transactional. Migrants are tolerated for their economic utility but are denied full civic membership. This allows states to manage labor needs while maintaining strict control over their demographic makeup.

Long-Term Consequences of Demographic Policies

The use of demographic policy as a strategic tool carries significant long-term risks. While it can help consolidate state power in the short term, it often embeds exclusion and social hierarchy into the foundation of the state, undermining civic cohesion.

When rights and recognition are tied to ethnicity or language, it weakens pluralism and can frame political dissent as national disloyalty. This politicization of population groups encourages a zero-sum approach to sovereignty and discourages regional cooperation.

At a regional level, these competing demographic strategies increase fragmentation and mistrust between nations. As states define belonging based on conflicting principles—some ethnonational, others civic—it becomes harder to build shared frameworks for security and cooperation. This dynamic makes the entire post-Soviet space more vulnerable to geopolitical competition and instability. The manipulation of populations has become a powerful, yet destabilizing, feature of governance in the region.